Forty Trillion, the Long Bond, and the Thrill of the Pull

Podcasts - The Wealth RecapSeptember 2, 2026
Forty Trillion, the Long Bond, and the Thrill of the Pull

In this episode:
1. Forty trillion dollars and the Treasury’s move in the bond market — what the $40 trillion milestone really means (hint: the rising cost of servicing the debt, not the number itself), why long-term yields have been climbing, what a Treasury buyback is and why it targets the long end, and three expert views on whether it helps or just treats the symptom.
2. The level of rates versus the speed — is five percent actually high by historical standards? A look back at 1994, when rates were not high but rose fast and by surprise, causing a repricing of the bond market that fell hardest on the most leveraged investors — a case study in why the pace of a rate change can matter more than the level.
3. Buy the pack, sell it back — how digital trading-card “repacks” work, the expected-value math that puts the odds with the operator, the psychology of the “thrill of the pull,” and the line between collecting and gambling.

Follow on Apple

Sources referenced in this episode:

  • U.S. Department of the Treasury — Treasury buyback announcement (maximum operation size raised to at least $4 billion, longer-dated sectors), SB0607: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0607
  • U.S. Department of the Treasury — FiscalData / “Debt to the Penny” (total public debt outstanding): https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-penny
  • Barron’s — “U.S. Government Debt is Now Over $40 Trillion. And Rising.” (Janet H. Cho, Aug 19, 2026): https://www.barrons.com/articles/u-s-government-debt-40-trillion-e9df7e1f
  • Barron’s — “Bessent’s Interventions Have Fizzled. The Real Problem Is the Deficit.” (Randall W. Forsyth, Aug 21, 2026): https://www.barrons.com/articles/bessent-bond-moves-fizzled-problem-deficit-da735261
  • CNN — “The national debt just hit $40 trillion” (Aug 23, 2026): https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/23/economy/national-debt-40-trillion
  • Congressional Budget Office — Monthly Budget Review, fiscal year 2025 (net interest surpassed $1 trillion): https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61999
  • Peter G. Peterson Foundation — interest costs as a share of federal revenue: https://www.pgpf.org/national-debt-clock/
  • CNBC — “Treasury announces upscaled buyback operation for longer-term debt” (Aug 19, 2026): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/treasury-buyback-operation-longer-term-debt.html
  • CNBC — Treasury bond buybacks and long-term yields / ING analysis (Aug 20, 2026): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/20/treasury-bond-buybacks-long-term-yields.html
  • Council on Foreign Relations — “What the Treasury’s Buyback Surprise Says About the Bond Market”: https://www.cfr.org/article/what-treasurys-buyback-surprise-says-about-bond-market
  • Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — “What Is Yield Curve Control?”: https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2020/august/what-yield-curve-control
  • SIFMA — U.S. Treasury securities outstanding (market size): https://www.sifma.org/resources/research/us-treasury-securities-statistics/
  • Fortune — “The Great Bond Massacre” (original 1994 reporting): https://fortune.com/article/the-great-bond-massacre-fortune-1994
  • The Motley Fool — “The Bond Market Massacre Began on This Day” (1994 figures, S&P 500 return): https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/02/04/the-bond-market-massacre-began-on-this-day.aspx
  • Bankrate — history of the federal funds rate: https://www.bankrate.com/banking/federal-reserve/history-of-federal-funds-rate/
  • Barron’s — “How Arena Club and Fanatics Are Turning Baseball Cards Into Online Casinos” (Nick Devor, Aug 27, 2026): https://www.barrons.com/articles/arena-club-fanatics-baseball-cards-online-casinos-bf0c4232
  • The Hobby Wire — “Buy the Pack, Sell It Back, Repeat” (expected-value analysis of digital repacks): https://thehobbywire.substack.com/p/buy-the-pack-sell-it-back-repeat

    The Wealth Recap is produced by Buckley Wealth and is for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing in this podcast is personalized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Buckley Wealth is an SEC-registered investment adviser; registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training.